Ciovacco Capital: Stocks «Divide & Conquer» (inglés)

Análisis de situación de mercado por Ciovacco Capital.

Me ha parecido interesante compartir más puntos de vista sobre el mercado. Recuerda que no tiene por qué representar mi opinión:

Activa la opción de subtítulos de Youtube en inglés para una mejor comprensión:

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in this week’s video
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we look at risk management in the context 2008
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and discuss how it applies to the 2014 stock market we’ve got a lot to cover
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absolutely moving directly to the charts to view the video in full screen mode
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use this icon in the lower right hand corner
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have your video player to improve the clarity of the charts
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use this icon in the lower right hand corner
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have your video player briefly be looking at two charts 2008 and then
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we’ll move to 2014
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is it daily chart of the S&P 500
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2010 ate here 2009
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here if you’re relatively new to investing
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this can be fairly intimidating trying to answer the question
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how would I have managed through is
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fifty-plus percent decline
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one of the ways that we can do it and there’s many ways to approach the market
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is instead of trying to predict when we’re here
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what’s going to happen over the next 12 months
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are worrying about where we’ll be warmer here where we’ll be
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here it’s better to use
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somewhat above a divide-and-conquer strategy
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this is the war it’s the bear market
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we can’t do to make sure that it’s not
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overwhelming as we fight small battles and typically
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all the battles a relatively similar this is what an uptrend looks like
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this is what consolidation looks like in this is what a downtrend looks like
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the key to fighting small battles is staying in then now
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and worrying about what’s going to happen in the intermediate term from a
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probabilistic perspective
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so when we’re here are focused isn’t here
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it’s not way out here when we’re here
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our focus is inside this box we’re gonna be in an uptrend until we’re not
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as long as we’re in an uptrend would leave it alone when something changes
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then we fight
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another short term battle until something changes
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has all the supplied to the present day this is the present a chart of the S&P
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500 as at the close on Friday
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August 15 remember there are three primary battles that we can fight
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what type of battle are we in now this is an
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uptrend battle here marked by a series of higher highs
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and higher lows that’s what an uptrend looks like
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really don’t have a downtrend on this chart
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to get a downtrend we need a lower low
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a low or high and then a lower low
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we don’t have that yet so we’re still fighting somewhat
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have an in decisive battle we fought this battle here
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now we’ve got a new battle we don’t know what type
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battle it is from here typically one of three things can happen
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we can go on to make a series of higher highs and higher lows
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and then we’re fighting an uptrend battle we can consolidate
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within this range here which is an indecisive
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battle we tried to be patient and minimize our chess moves
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or stock market could be rejected here
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in go down here and make a lower low below this slow and then we’re fighting
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a downtrend battle so where we are now
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we’re still in we’re not sure exactly what type a battle worth fighting
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since that’s the case we tried to remain patient
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in trade last rather than more frequently
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here you can see on Friday we had mention 1950
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8 as a guidepost we close below it
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on Friday we have not clear that we closed 1955
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we talked about the 50-day moving average
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at 19:57 close below that
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as well a week ago we were patient
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do to you the potential support support
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help again we don’t know what type a battle worth fighting
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we wanna fight in compartmentalized small pieces
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so how can we do that going into Monday’s session
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are going into next week as human beings what we want to know
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is where will we be in six weeks
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or three months we be up
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will down the battle we need to fight
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is to stay in the now so if we’re concerned about missing
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a 100-point rally on the S&P 500
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then we know this it’s not possible to rally
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100 points for several weeks are several months
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without first taking out Friday’s
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intraday high of 1964 kisses indecisive
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look here it might even be a handyman which is a potential reversal pattern
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from a candlestick perspective this is our
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upper with this is our lower wick we also know
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that effort %ah Singh interning at night and we’re worried about a multiple month
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correction
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that could last 120 days possibly and see
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prices fall 10 percent plus if that’s what you’re worried about
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we also know that that can happen in till Friday’s
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intraday low %uh 1941
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is taken now so to compartmentalize
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our battle next week from our perspective
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and under our system and for our time frame
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we would perfer to sit tight
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until the market at a minimum clears 1964 we prefer to see it on a closing
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basis
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if we do there were more likely to
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incrementally move some cash into equities
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conversely if we go to 1941
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we wouldn’t necessarily make a negative or bearish chess move there
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if that’s the case if we take out 1941
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we might consider adding some bonds based upon the evidence we have
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in here now we r doin some bonds and they did well force again this week
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to go below 1941 we should defer back to the previous chart
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if we take out Friday’s low of 19
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41 here we still won’t know what type a battle worth fighting
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fact the way we’re treated as we’re fighting a range-bound
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battle between let’s say nineteen fifty
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eight ish in nineteen 04 ish
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so as long as we remain between 1958
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in 1904 all things being equal week per for
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to make fewer moves or no moves why
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because if we can exceed 1950 8 we will be making
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I’m next chess move with better information
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or if we come down here and make a lower low
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below 1904 we will also be making our next
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chess move with better information
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this simply break 1904 now we have
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a low a low or high and that would be a lower low
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that’s a downtrend the ads have a correction would be greatly diminished
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if the S&P 500
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can go on to make a new high here about
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1990 will enter next week with a
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flexible unbiased an open mind
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since we still have an indecisive
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in unclear mission here we don’t know what battle worth fighting
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the charts are mixed so we’re gonna go through them quickly because price
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is the best way to manage in the short term
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and compartmentalize this as at the close on Friday August 15
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S&P 500 weekly we would prefer to see the present-day
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morph into our full bore bullish look with price about both moving averages to
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about bread
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in the slopes up we have a tweener look it’s an in-between look it looks better
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than it did last week but it’s still not a full-bore bullish look
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if this morphs into this the probability
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get things happening will increase especially
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if it looks like this as at the close next Friday
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week also have potential resistance on
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dish chartres here around nineteen seventy
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ish nineteen sixty five ish this was support
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in the act as resistance resistance resistance
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may act as resistance this line here could act as support
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so we’re fighting a range-bound battle until proven
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otherwise movie along with the mixed bag
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theme nasdaq: weekly has converted back to a full bore bullish look
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also exceeded this trend line here these are
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all forms observable improvement and they didn’t check bullish boxes
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in the CC a market not we’re just trying to give clients and regular viewers
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a feel for what we’re seeing will move through this quickly
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the NYSE composite index basically the exact same story that we just told
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about the S&P 500
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few quick points on the weekly chart have that down
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first of all if you’re frustrated in these markets well
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has been a little difficult last week the Dow hit a point
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here the exact same point
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that it hit in December it’s made no progress
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a lot of volatility bad news
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still has not converted into any type abolish look
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good news mix back resistance
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resistance breakout support
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acted as support again so a mixed bag here with some good
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and some how is it possible that the market model is still hovering around a
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50-50 type look well this is the credit markets
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and we know that JNK and TLT have a maturity
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mismatch were well aware of that this
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has a full-bore bearish look this is checking
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very few bullish boxes
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another example of a somewhat confused market this is small caps here’s a point
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here in October of last year we roughly came back to that point
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last week this like the previous charts a mixed bag
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it appears to be holding a potential support
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but it has not converted into a full-bore bullish look
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this is a consolidation look for the most part
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would I rather own small caps for Treasurys from a weekly trend
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perspective
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the answer is still treasuries this as a full more bearish
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look against small caps
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relative to treasuries forty L T
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we prefer to see this chart from a bullish perspective in the equity
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markets
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morph into something like this
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is the S&P 500 risk on relative to the VIX fear index risk
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of you can see the ratio was rejected here
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stocks were weak this is the S&P 500
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rejected at resistance tax per week
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broke out stocks did well here we are testing resistance
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again if we can morph into a look like
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this and get up here that’s bullish for stocks if we get rejected like
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this increases the probability
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bad things happening equities in the short run
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another example avarice converses risks of showing indecisiveness this is stacks
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versus long-term treasuries
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telling us to be careful this is part of the fifty percent
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negative in the market model this ratio has gone
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nowhere in 10 months October 2013
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exact same spot today
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this is what indecisiveness looks like
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for comparison purposes this is what 10 months
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up bearish conviction looks like in 2008 in favor
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treasuries in this is what 10 months a bullish conviction looks like
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favoring stocks over bonds
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the bad news is this is difficult or more difficult to manage through
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the good news is the longer we consolidate typically
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once we break out the bigger the move-up or down
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we typically get how we track all of this sink converted
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into a usable and actionable format in a reasonable amount of time
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submodels we answer binary questions some of them manually done some of them
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programmed
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in Excel and we also enter in on
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biased and hard data
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this submodels allow us to get a handle on the market’s current profile
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and the master CCM market model then looks at the current profile
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compares it to pass profiles and recommends a prudent allocation
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between risk assets such as stocks
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in conservative assets such as bonds conservative assets can consist have
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cash bonds currency
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or any number have investment options
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if you’d like to learn more about the market model or money management
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services you can visit our website
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follow along on Twitter Facebook
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read our blog shortcake’s or watch pass videos
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on the show vacco capital channel on UT
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the material in this video has no regard to the specific investment objectives
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financial situation or particular needs any viewer
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this video is presented solely for informational purposes
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and is not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any
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security
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or any related financial instruments nor should any of the content be taken as
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investment advice
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any opinions expressed in speedy are subject to change without notice
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shackle Capital Management LLC or CCM
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is not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained
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herein
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CCM in its respective officers and associates or clients
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may have an interest in the securities or derivatives have any entities
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referred to in this material
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CCM accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage
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have any kind arising out of the use of all or any part of this material
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we recommend you consult with a licensed and qualified professional
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before making any investment decision
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4 responses to “Ciovacco Capital: Stocks «Divide & Conquer» (inglés)

  1. Dice algo así como que el momento actual de los mercados es indeterminado, que puede subir o bajar. El Nasdaq está que lo parte y luego compara con otros mercados pasados.

    Parece que tiene un sesgo negativo (que ya sabeis que no tengo por qué compartir o estar de acuerdo con eso).

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